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German GDP (gross domestic product) growing just slightly in 2nd quarter of 2011

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The momentum with which the German economy started into 2011 has slowed down considerably. In the second quarter of 2011, the gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 0.1% – upon price, seasonal and calendar adjustment – on the first quarter, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The result for the first quarter of 2011 was slightly corrected downwards to +1.3%.
 
In a quarter-on-quarter comparison (adjusted for price, seasonal and calendar variations), positive contributions were made by exports and capital formation. However, imports in the second quarter of 2011 rose more strongly than exports.That large increase in imports on the one hand led to higher building of inventories, while on the other hand it resulted in a balance of exports and imports that had an altogether negative impact on economic growth. Also, final consumption expenditure of households and capital formation in construction had a slowdown effect on the German economy in the second quarter of 2011.

 

In a year-on-year comparison, however, the gross domestic product showed a marked increase again. In the second quarter of 2011, the price-adjusted GDP rose 2.8% (calendar-adjusted: +2.7%) on the second quarter of 2010.
 
According to first provisional calculations, the economic performance in the second quarter of 2011 was achieved by 41.0 million persons in employment in the domestic territory, which was an increase of 553,000 persons or 1.4% on a year earlier. Detailed results of employment accounts will be released on 18 August 2011.
 
 
2011 revision of national accounts
 
In addition to the first calculation of data for the second quarter of 2011, the results published so far were revised, that is, not only the results for the last four years as is usual in August but also the results for the entire time series as from 1991. Apart from the regular (or continuous) revisions, such major revisions of German national accounts are performed about every five years to adjust the calculations to new methods, classifications and framework conditions (last time in 1999 and 2005).
 
The current recalculation performed as part of the 2011 revision of national accounts has led to rates of change of the annual unadjusted GDP values that differ by up to +/–0.3 percentage points from the results published previously; only in 2007 (+0.6 percentage points) and in 2009 (–0.4 percentage points) the corrections were somewhat larger. The quarterly year-on-year rates of change have been corrected by up to +/–0.7 percentage points, those of the seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter results by up to +/–0.5 percentage points (see last table in the annex; a complete comparison between the old and the new GDP results as from 1991 is available for download at the Internet.The mean absolute correction of the price-adjusted GDP was 0.2 percentage points in a year-on-year comparison and 0.1 percentage points in a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarter-on-quarter comparison.
 
The main purpose of the 2011 revision of national accounts is to change the system over to the new classification of economic activities and classification of products by activity. In addition, all previous calculations were checked and new information has been integrated into the system where possible. As a consequence, corrections of different extents occur in the entire time series as from 1991. Generally, the need for revision is largest in the last four years (that is, from 2007) because part of the basic statistics are available for the first time for those periods. The recent strong fluctuations in the short-term economic development pose an additional challenge to data estimation at the recent end of the series.
 
More detailed results on the second quarter of 2011 and on the 2011 major revision of national accounts will be released by the Federal Statistical Office on 1 September 2011.
 

Gross domestic product
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
 
Unadjusted figures
Figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted
Calendar-adjusted 1)
Calendar effect
2005 = 100
% 2)
2005 = 100
% 3)
2005 = 100
% 2)
% 2)
1) For years, the calendar-adjusted values are identical with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted values (except for differences due to rounding).
2) Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
3) Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
2007 107.09  3.3  107.25  3.4  107.25  3.4  –0.1 
2008 108.25  1.1  108.11  0.8  108.12  0.8   0.3 
2009 102.70 –5.1  102.62 –5.1  102.63 –5.1  –0.1 
2010 106.49  3.7  106.28  3.6  106.28  3.6   0.1 
2007 1st quarter 104.99  4.3  106.25  0.7  104.56  4.5  –0.3 
2nd quarter 105.91  3.4  106.87  0.6  106.25  3.4  –0.1 
3rd quarter 109.41  3.3  107.80  0.9  109.86  3.4  –0.0 
4th quarter 108.06  2.2  108.07  0.3  108.32  2.3  –0.1 
2008 1st quarter 107.17  2.1  109.23  1.1  107.64  2.9  –0.8 
2nd quarter 109.22  3.1  108.81 –0.4  108.14  1.8   1.3 
3rd quarter 110.58  1.1  108.38 –0.4  110.45  0.5   0.5 
4th quarter 106.04 –1.9  106.03 –2.2  106.23 –1.9   0.1 
2009 1st quarter 100.23 –6.5  101.78 –4.0  100.39 –6.7   0.3 
2nd quarter 101.14 –7.4  102.10  0.3  101.42 –6.2  –1.3 
3rd quarter 105.05 –5.0  102.93  0.8  104.86 –5.1   0.1 
4th quarter 104.37 –1.6  103.68  0.7  103.83 –2.3   0.7 
2010 1st quarter 102.82  2.6  104.21  0.5  102.87  2.5   0.1 
2nd quarter 105.57  4.4  106.24  1.9  105.48  4.0   0.4 
3rd quarter 109.25  4.0  107.08  0.8  109.07  4.0  –0.0 
4th quarter 108.32  3.8  107.59  0.5  107.70  3.7   0.0 
2011 1st quarter 107.97  5.0  109.04  1.3  107.72  4.7   0.3 
2nd quarter 108.53  2.8  109.17  0.1  108.36  2.7   0.1 


 
 

Gross domestic product at current prices
 
Unadjusted figures
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to
Census X-12-ARIMA
EUR billion
Change in % 1)
EUR billion
Change in % 2)
1) Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
2) Change on the previous year or quarter in %.
2007 2.428.50  5.0  2.432.03  5.1 
2008 2.473.80  1.9  2.470.71  1.6 
2009 2.374.50 –4.0  2.372.74 –4.0 
2010 2.476.80  4.3  2.471.86  4.2 
2007 1st quarter 591.42  5.9  600.66  1.9 
2nd quarter 594.26  5.0  605.54  0.8 
3rd quarter 620.60  5.1  611.96  1.1 
4th quarter 622.22  3.9  613.87  0.3 
2008 1st quarter 608.52  2.9  622.49  1.4 
2nd quarter 618.08  4.0  621.72 –0.1 
3rd quarter 631.67  1.8  619.43 –0.4 
4th quarter 615.53 –1.1  607.07 –2.0 
2009 1st quarter 573.67 –5.7  584.94 –3.6 
2nd quarter 577.74 –6.5  588.97  0.7 
3rd quarter 608.81 –3.6  596.89  1.3 
4th quarter 614.28 –0.2  601.94  0.8 
2010 1st quarter 594.78  3.7  605.45  0.6 
2nd quarter 607.02  5.1  616.80  1.9 
3rd quarter 635.41  4.4  623.05  1.0 
4th quarter 639.59  4.1  626.56  0.6 
2011 1st quarter 626.16  5.3  635.30  1.4 
2nd quarter 629.40  3.7  639.20  0.6 


 

Gross domestic product
Price-adjusted, chain-linked
 
New result
Former result
Chain index (2005 = 100)
Change
in % 1)
Chain index (2000 = 100)
Change
in % 1)
1) Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures: Change on the previous year or quarter in %;
    Unadjusted figures: Change on the previous year or the same quarter of the preceding year in %.
Seasonally and calendar-adjusted figures according to Census X-12-ARIMA
2007  107.25  3.4  109.47  2.8 
2008  108.11  0.8  110.24  0.7 
2009  102.62 –5.1  105.09 –4.7 
2010  106.28  3.6  108.77  3.5 
2007 1st quarter 106.25  0.7  108.66  0.3 
2nd quarter 106.87  0.6  109.05  0.4 
3rd quarter 107.80  0.9  109.87  0.8 
4th quarter 108.07  0.3  110.29  0.4 
2008 1st quarter 109.23  1.1  111.55  1.1 
2nd quarter 108.81 –0.4  110.85 –0.6 
3rd quarter 108.38 –0.4  110.41 –0.4 
4th quarter 106.03 –2.2  108.15 –2.0 
2009 1st quarter 101.78 –4.0  104.14 –3.7 
2nd quarter 102.10  0.3  104.71  0.5 
3rd quarter 102.93  0.8  105.50  0.8 
4th quarter 103.68  0.7  106.02  0.5 
2010 1st quarter 104.21  0.5  106.56  0.5 
2nd quarter 106.24  1.9  108.81  2.1 
3rd quarter 107.08  0.8  109.66  0.8 
4th quarter 107.59  0.5  110.06  0.4 
2011 1st quarter 109.04  1.3  111.71  1.5 
2nd quarter 109.17  0.1  X X
Unadjusted figures
2007 107.09  3.3  109.31  2.7 
2008 108.25  1.1   110.39  1.0 
2009 102.70 –5.1  105.18 –4.7 
2010 106.49  3.7  109.00  3.6 
2007 1st quarter 104.99  4.3  107.29  3.8 
2nd quarter 105.91  3.4  108.38  2.7 
3rd quarter 109.41  3.3  110.74  2.6 
4th quarter 108.06  2.2  110.84  1.6 
2008 1st quarter 107.17  2.1  109.30  1.9 
2nd quarter 109.22  3.1  111.66  3.0 
3rd quarter 110.58  1.1  111.88  1.0 
4th quarter 106.04 –1.9  108.73 –1.9 
2009 1st quarter 100.23 –6.5  102.37 –6.3 
2nd quarter 101.14 –7.4  104.10 –6.8 
3rd quarter 105.05 –5.0  106.95 –4.4  
4th quarter 104.37 –1.6  107.31 –1.3 
2010 1st quarter 102.82  2.6  104.90  2.5 
2nd quarter 105.57  4.4  108.58  4.3 
3rd quarter 109.25  4.0  111.13  3.9 
4th quarter 108.32  3.8  111.40  3.8 
2011 1st quarter 107.97  5.0  110.36  5.2 
2nd quarter 108.53  2.8  X X


 Source: Federal Statistical Office Germany

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