"NowCasting" Irish GDP (ABBU)
Thursday, 5 February 2009 | 
Risk - Research
Now-casting Irish GDP
Antonello D'Agostino, Kieran McQuinn and Derry O'Brien
ABSTRACT
Within individual quarters of the year, the approach, enables the data flow on monthly information during the quarter to be exploited. A pseudo-real time data approach is followed in that the data availability situation, which exists at each quarter is replicated for the model estimates. In evaluating the now-casting model, we perform an out of sample simulation where the estimates of the model are compared with that of a benchmark approach. We find that the mean squared forecast errors for both the now-casts and the back-casts are considerably smaller than those of the benchmark model. Unsurprisingly, the later in the quarter the now-cast or the backcast is generated, the more accurate the estimate is relative to the observed series.
" NOW - CASTING " all you ever wanted to know but were afraid to ask
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