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European Commission Economic and Financial Affairs - Spring forecasts 2009-2010

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EU GDP fan chartA tough 2009, but EU economy set to stabilise as support measures take effect

The Commission publishes economic forecasts four times a year. The comprehensive spring and autumn forecasts cover growth, inflation, employment and public budget deficits and debts for all EU Member States and several non-EU-countries. The smaller interim forecasts – normally published in February and September – review developments since the preceding forecast for the largest economies only.



The budget deficit is set to more than double this year in the EU (from 2.3% of GDP in 2008 to 6%) and to increase further in 2010 (to 7¼%) ensuing from both the impact of the economic slowdown itself and the sizeable discretionary budgetary stimulus to support economic activity.

Balance of risks

Considerable uncertainties remain amid the worst recession of the global economy since the Second World War. The outlook for economic activity hinges in particular on the impact of the financial crisis and the strength of the feedback loops between different sectors of the economy as well as the effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary stimulus measures.





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