What is the Central Bank thinking?
Below is a review of recent central bank literature in the area of macro prudential supervision, this review is intended to elucidate why it is that a banking crisis crosses the line between free market private individual economics and public sector control, in a sense why the banking system is “different” in that executive officers of a financial institution have a higher order responsibility (ironically) to the general welfare of the population which flows form their interrelatio
In the midst of this LIBOR / EURIBOR scandal I thought I would share some references to LIBOR & its role in world capital markets from asymptotix. One would not generally reference LIBOR or EURIBOR explicitly since that would be far too arcane even for us!! Most of my references to LIBOR are in “asymptotix papers” which are long pdf documents; developed with the sole purpose of boring you to death!
About this running LIBOR rigging story, unravelling this weekend; a ‘friend’ said
“What they've caught onto is barely the tip of the iceberg. Eventually, the part below the surface might be revealed...”
Why are LIBOR & EURIBOR so important? They are the foundations, the technical-basis of the TERM STRUCTURE of interest rates; a crucial concept in Macroeconomics (& in banking risk management); in summary the 'term structure' is the PIVOT between MONEY & (real economic) ACTIVITY. LIBOR (or EURIBOR for Euro demoninated transactions) is the base, the lowest value of the 'term structure' vector (what is sometimes called the 'ratchet'). The technical phrase ‘Yield Curve’ can be used interchangeably with ‘Term Structure’. I give some colorful articulation of that relationship between Monetary conditions and the real economy in the references here on this page (but particularly in the paper below);-
Progressive Credit Risk Management (CRM) transparently presents “own credit risk” to improve Asset-Backed transaction terms. When the CRM output is combined with insurance and funding methodologies, the financial benefits are striking. This is because banks rarely offer funding terms based on a due diligence process as thorough as the company themselves can execute daily.
Policymakers are keen for banks to lend. However, the banking model is broken. Many of the methodologies developed to intermediate credit are no longer cost effective or trusted by investors. Banks have responded by tightening credit issuance and de-leveraging. Alongside tougher Basel and domestic regulation, fee-earning has been hit. Banks are using general de-leveraging to cleanse their exposure to individuals, companies, other banks/ Financial Institutions and sovereigns who they believe will not only be unable or unwilling to repay debt but also unable to afford the cost of re-priced risk.
Think about it, as LTRO triggers on the leap day TODAY, why is the Central Bank being forced to do this against its will? The European monetary transmission mechanism doesn't have an IMF-Equivalent; so not only is the euro a political mishmash at the concept level its a stool (sic) on two legs at the practical institutional level.
EU Money supply is at rock bottom, the pump at the 'heart' of European money supply is on life support.
That 'life support' is LTRO from the Central Bank, right? The Central Bank should be independent right? It shouldn't be pumping up the very thing that it is chartered to control, that is perversity by definition right?
It's LTRO that I’m talking about this time! LTRO the latest version of “economic life support those” crackpot surgeons in the Central Banks and Treasuries of Europe have come up with. What is the issue with it? As LTRO2 approaches, to on the leap day (29/2/2012) I present a number of theses about LTRO;
1. LTRO is a workaround for Crowding Out
2. LTRO is executed via a process called 'Round Tripping' or known as a ‘Carry Trade’
3. Hedge Funds are intrinsic to the success of LTRO
4. This makes governments dependent upon Hedge Funds (& not just the banks)
5. LTRO creates a cash balloon which props up the equity market
6. LTRO is a high-risk central bank strategy which could deflate at a stroke
7. Ironically the very Hedge Funds and Asset Managers who are intrinsic to the success of LTRO are already freaked out by the high risk nature of the policy,
2 Blog Post Essays about the Economics of Scotland, right now; 1) banking (microeconomics) 2) post independence, the euro? (macroeconomics)
..... what I really meant to say about Clydesdale and NBNK; its the macroeconomics stupid
Models of Small Open Economies; Lessons from Ireland for Scotland in the Euro.