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Macroeconomic signals - associates debate

see asymptotix asscoaites page : http://www.asymptotix.eu/associates

Bristow and McDowell havin a chat in public (very nice), Bristow first ,,,,,













European Stability Bank - Take 2 - Asymptotix analysis ahead of the EU summit tomorrow

It will be interesting to see how this European summit on rescue funds and euro bonds pans out John and I have had another one of my logic stream thought processes late in the night as to how to deal with the Euro zone mess far more effectively and permanently than currently is proposed anywhere.

To keep you up-to-date with our position in this field I recommend you also read:

http://www.asymptotix.eu/content/lunatix-are-grass-new-bretton-woods-proposition-europe-now and


Given the differences between the 750 billion fund (less the Ireland bailout costs of course) and the doubling to 1,500 billion proposed by the IMF and the utter rejection of this by Merkel and Zarkozy who cant afford it despite the crowing from Deutschland to mask the reality of their exposure to sovereign debt and debt to gdp ratio and the peripheral exposure of a number of their banks to PD and sovereign default as recently mentioned, it will be interesting to see what is finally decided.

Gordon Brown warns of imminent euro 'high noon'

Former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has said he fears the euro will face a "high noon" moment of reckoning early in the New Year. "I sense that in the first few months of 2011 we [will] have a major crisis in the euro area," he told BBC business editor Robert Peston. He said the euro's problems were bigger than just its governments' debts.

Europe must also solve the euro's structural rigidities and the enormous debts of its banks, he warned. Europe's banks - including the UK's - faced massive liabilities and had inadequate capital to absorb losses, he said, creating the risk of a Europe-wide banking crisis. The warning echoed complaints by Irish opposition politicians that their country had been strong-armed by Brussels into footing the bill for rescuing the Irish banks, because failing to do so could have sparked a wider European banking crisis.

'Diminishing living standards'


Banks and Basel III - blackmail or chainmail?

by Robert McDowell


Will the various new so-called “Basel III” rules make the world safer from financial crises? There should not be a short answer to such a complex question – but my answer is yes, and no, not much either way, and, looking back, taking the metaphor of New Orleans sea defences and levees, higher equity in banks core capital reserves means the same as adding only inches to the height of ‘sea defences’. Protecting the financial system is a systemic challenge; individual breaches in flood defenses may be contained or lead to general failure.

Erecting barriers, by setting global prudential standards, to prevent calamity is the job of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), to mitigate, prevent or postpone, another Credit Crunch, its job is to agree techniques, laws, rules and guidelines to resist a 1/25 tidal surge or the 1/100 that some say defined the Credit Crunch.

CEO Letter to my Rain-makers

Dear Rain-makers, friends & colleagues, You have been asking how exactly our 2009 bonuses will be structured and paid? As some of you will know 2008 bonuses were the same as in 2004, and all paid in cash! 2004 (28 April) was also when the USA's SEC relaxed leverage ratios on investment banks; following which we all in the UK followed suit, mainly by upping our % bonus pool to profit ratio by a fifth. FSA's Financial Stability Report in 2009 found that if Britain's troubled banks had retained 20% of remuneration bonuses & shareholder dividends (£75bn or $120bn) instead of paying these out based on short termism (so-called) that actually exceeded what was needed subsequently (in 2008 and 2009) in government and central bank supplied capital support (in preference share equity) to the same excessive bonus-paying banks. This I will show is a false correlation, what some culture experts might call a "post-modern relativism", usefully summed up by the following cartoon that I urge all non-bankers to take to heart as we bankers do.

Regulators get tough but will they cap banks' profiteering?

If, in our western capitalistic economies, we think of profit-hunting (a concept beloved of some fund managers) as akin to lions hunting, then non-financial industry is like the female lions who do the chasing while banks

Lloyds Banking Group H1 2010 result compared to 2009

At above 73p the LBG shares are in profit for the government should it choose to sell its £22-23bn holding. Government decided (Con manifesto pledge) to set up its UK Banking Commission enquiry first (to report no later than Aug/Sept '11) before it will sell its bank shares (worth a total of about £60+bn in LBG & RBS). The Commission will cover similar issues as that of the pre-election "Future of Banking" Commission that involved views from all parties, banks and independent experts (see http://commission.bnbb.org/banking/sites/all/themes/whichfobtheme/pdf/co...).
The shares should show considerable profit gain over the next year or two?

Central banks doing a good job or not?

Central banks and other bank supervising regulators have advised banks to seek longer term funding-gap finance in the hope too that lending can be placed on longer maturities. The stability of the cost-of-debt-financing is as important as its price level, especially when government wants industry to invest in equipment, infrastructure, and stock building, and do so somewhat ahead of expected higher consumer demand when revival in consumer credit and residential property values return.

Citigroup Disposals and Regulation lessons: A question of Time

You will remember that in December 2007, Vikram Pandit became the new CEO of Citigroup, replacing interim-CEO Sir Winfried Bischoff, who became chairman of the board as well as remaining CEO of Citigroup Europe before becoming Cha
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