edited 4th July 2012
What the hell is going on with our economy in Europe since whatever that is, it underpins our level of activity; our level of social engagement our socio political locus does it not?
One cannot avoid, when living in BXL now and again picking up a history book about Schuman or Delors and the various grand plans which developed to drag "the EU" from the Coal and Steel union huddles in Irish bars, cigar smoke and beef prices; to this monster of power which we have today.
I have been extremely critical of the performance of the EU in the financial crisis here on this website. The crisis facing special units of the EU megalith made some howling mistakes in crisis management.
It has become obvious recently that senior EU personnel really do not understand how banking and financial markets function. (reference) The disaster that was the EBA (& its predecessor CEBS) speaks to that clearly!
Why a Monetary Stimulus was Insufficient this time around
It's a well worn phrase but a profound idea that no matter how clever or high performance your forecasting system; you never see a turning point in an economic time series until it's behind you.
this intro page updated / edited 7th July 2012
(the paper probably needs a re-write & update too)
At the beginning of asymptotix, explaining our philosphy here, I said;-
Back in the day; the Monetarist / Keynesian debate, bursting out in the US when Reagan was elected, the Keynesians (e.g. Cowles Commission) could attack monetarists by saying that monetarists had no theory [the monetarists were 'Logical Positivists']. The monetarist response (Chicago School and Berkeley) was that the Keynesians did not understand science and particularly did not understand data.
Bill Nighy invites Bankers on a Trip
"Let's Take a Trip and Get things in Proportion"
CONCLUDING REMARK BY BILL ON R5LIVE THIS AM
Germany and France want Portugal to accept aid but split over plans for European Economic Government
Both France and Germany want an economic government for Europe. The only problem is they have completely different things in mind. The conflict threatens to derail any chances of progress.
When German Chancellor Angela Merkel stood before reporters at the EU summit held in mid-December in Brussels, she took advantage of the opportunity to make a minor concession to neighboring France. "We have obviously been discussing the issue of an economic government for a long time," Merkel said. "What we are currently envisioning goes yet another step in this direction."
In an effort to gain some control over the euro crisis, the Europeans had agreed to replace the existing rescue fund for over-indebted euro-zone countries with a permanent mechanism. But there was also another matter that attracted less attention: At least as far as the French saw things, they were also supposed to be developing ideas for how to strengthen political cooperation between euro-zone member states on economic issues.
A few weeks on, little remains of the summit's spirit of harmony. At the moment, there is serious wrangling between Berlin and Paris over the details of the planned crisis mechanism. Indeed, the two governments have completely different conceptions of exactly what a European economic government would entail.
Most people, among them the tens of thousands of workers who rallied in Brussels on September 29th, believe that fiscal austerity leads to a shrinking economy, at least in the short run. Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, disagrees. In June he said that “the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect.” Arguing that a credible fiscal-consolidation plan would restore confidence, he said: “I firmly believe that in the current circumstances, confidence-inspiring policies will foster and not hamper economic recovery.”