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Stress Tests - A New Modeling Paradigm & a Pragmatic Approach

I have been reviewing the papers from a recent conference;-

The ESRB at 1

SUERF/Deutsche Bundesbank/IMFS Conference

& I think there is a crystallisation of a theme at that conference reflected in one particular presentation which articulates a narrative that we have been developing here on asymptotix in regard to Stress testing over the last 2 or 3 years.

LTRO: Criminal Political Behaviour by Merkozy with Van Rompuy as the Marionette

 

Think about it, as LTRO triggers on the leap day TODAY, why is the Central Bank being forced to do this against its will? The European monetary transmission mechanism doesn't have an IMF-Equivalent; so not only is the euro a political mishmash at the concept level its a stool (sic) on two legs at the practical institutional level. 

EU Money supply is at rock bottom, the pump at the 'heart' of European money supply is on life support.

That 'life support' is LTRO from the Central Bank, right? The Central Bank should be independent right? It shouldn't be pumping up the very thing that it is chartered to control, that is perversity by definition right?

European Commission Green Paper on the feasibility of introducing Stability Bonds - Official Version

Brussels, 23 November 2011

European Commission Green Paper on the feasibility of introducing Stability Bonds

Autumn forecast 2011-13: Growth at a standstill

Commission Vice-President for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn said: "Growth has stalled in Europe, and there is a risk of a new recession. While jobs are increasing in some member states, no real improvement is forecast in the unemployment situation in the EU as a whole. The key for the resumption of growth and job creation is restoring confidence in fiscal sustainability and in the financial system and speeding up reforms to enhance Europe's growth potential. There is a broad consensus on the necessary policy action. What we need now is unwavering implementation. On my part, I will start using the new rules of economic governance from Day one."

 

EU lowers euro area growth forecasts on worsening outlook from debt crisis

In its latest interim forecast, published on September 15, the Commission presents its assessment of economic prospects in the euro area and the whole of the EU for 2011. The document includes estimates for GDP growth and inflation in the EU and the euro area, as well as detailed projections for the seven largest EU Member States: Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and the UK.

DG Ecfin - Public finances in EMU - 2011

The recovery is here – but growth is still delicate.

 

 

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

DIRECTORATE GENERAL

ECONOMIC & FINANCIAL AFFAIRS

 

September 2011

 

PUBLIC QUANTITATIVE ANALYTICS: ASYMPTOTIC ORGANISATIONAL LAYOUTS

LIVSM.jpg

 

a discussion of european issues of data quality & reliability

& a sketch of a roadmap to address such

 

 

The European Commission is not interested in the best interests of Greece or Greeks. So long as Barrosso and VanRompuy spin and spin and have Sarko and Merkel onside then the European Commission can serve its own interests entirely.

 

The problem, right now, is that Sarko & Merkel alongside Obama and Cameron have an Economic Nightmare on their hands, their private sector economies are flatlining. Dying on the Operating Table. Isn’t it strange sometimes when you meet a senior Brussels official: they don’t seem to really know there is a serious recession outside Schuman?

Statement by the European Commission, ECB and IMF on the first quarterly review mission to Ireland

Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Dublin from 5 to 15 April for the first quarterly review of the Irish Government’s economic programme. The objectives of the programme are to address financial sector weaknesses and to put Ireland’s economy on a path of sustainable growth, sound public finances and job creation. Maintaining social fairness in shouldering the burden of adjustment is one of the programme’s priorities.

The teams’ assessment is that the programme is on track, but challenges remain and steadfast policy implementation will be key.

Ireland is making good progress in overcoming the worst economic crisis in its recent history. The implementation of the programme has been determined, despite the period of political change and an uncertain external environment. The new government, through its Programme for Government and its decisive approach to banking sector reforms, has taken full ownership of the goals and key elements of the programme supported by EU and IMF.

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Ireland Occasional Papers 76 Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs

 

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Ireland

European Commission

Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs

Occasional Papers 76 February 2011

EUROPEAN ECONOMY


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

A Developing issue in Macro-Econometric Modeling: Stress Testing

There is a developing issue in Macro-Econometric Modeling right now. It has been burning for about a year; we at asymptotix have some practical engagement with it which is reflected in our essay called 'Crowding Out 2'. That essay and its related comments simply document our experience at the client coal-face where we naively found ourselves addressing in a commercial engagement a great intellectual challenge of our time, probably way ahead of the academic curve. At a much more global and higher media oriented level this issue is documented in what is known as the Krugman / Ferguson debate or put more crudely (cf Niall Ferguson) the Keynesians versus the Monetarists (or more strictly the Classicists or Neo-Classicists).

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