In the midst of this LIBOR / EURIBOR scandal I thought I would share some references to LIBOR & its role in world capital markets from asymptotix. One would not generally reference LIBOR or EURIBOR explicitly since that would be far too arcane even for us!! Most of my references to LIBOR are in “asymptotix papers” which are long pdf documents; developed with the sole purpose of boring you to death!
About this running LIBOR rigging story, unravelling this weekend; a ‘friend’ said
“What they've caught onto is barely the tip of the iceberg. Eventually, the part below the surface might be revealed...”
Why are LIBOR & EURIBOR so important? They are the foundations, the technical-basis of the TERM STRUCTURE of interest rates; a crucial concept in Macroeconomics (& in banking risk management); in summary the 'term structure' is the PIVOT between MONEY & (real economic) ACTIVITY. LIBOR (or EURIBOR for Euro demoninated transactions) is the base, the lowest value of the 'term structure' vector (what is sometimes called the 'ratchet'). The technical phrase ‘Yield Curve’ can be used interchangeably with ‘Term Structure’. I give some colorful articulation of that relationship between Monetary conditions and the real economy in the references here on this page (but particularly in the paper below);-
It's LTRO that I’m talking about this time! LTRO the latest version of “economic life support those” crackpot surgeons in the Central Banks and Treasuries of Europe have come up with. What is the issue with it? As LTRO2 approaches, to on the leap day (29/2/2012) I present a number of theses about LTRO;
1. LTRO is a workaround for Crowding Out
2. LTRO is executed via a process called 'Round Tripping' or known as a ‘Carry Trade’
3. Hedge Funds are intrinsic to the success of LTRO
4. This makes governments dependent upon Hedge Funds (& not just the banks)
5. LTRO creates a cash balloon which props up the equity market
6. LTRO is a high-risk central bank strategy which could deflate at a stroke
7. Ironically the very Hedge Funds and Asset Managers who are intrinsic to the success of LTRO are already freaked out by the high risk nature of the policy,
Bank of England maintains Bank Rate at 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Programme at £200 billion
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee today voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £200 billion.
The minutes of the meeting will be published at 9.30am on Wednesday 21 September.
Note to Editors
Why a Monetary Stimulus was Insufficient this time around
It's a well worn phrase but a profound idea that no matter how clever or high performance your forecasting system; you never see a turning point in an economic time series until it's behind you.