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Flash estimate October 2011: Euro area inflation estimated at 3.0%; unemployment at 10.2%

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 3.0% in October 2011 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was also 3.0% in September.


Eurostat also estimated September 2011 Euro area unemployment rate at 10.2% and EU27 at 9.7%.

Eurozone inflation August 2011 at 2.5% and unemployment at 10.0% in July

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.5% in August 2011 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was 2.5% in July.

The euro area (EA17) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 10.0% in July 2011, unchanged compared with June. It was 10.2% in July 2010. The EU27 unemployment rate was 9.5% in July 2011, unchanged compared with June. It was 9.7% in July 2010.

Eurostat estimates that 22.711 million men and women in the EU27, of whom 15.757 million were in the euro area, were unemployed in July 2011. Compared with June 2011, the number of persons unemployed increased by 18 000 in the EU27 and by 61 000 in the euro area. Compared with July 2010, unemployment decreased by 451 000 in the EU27 and by 247 000 in the euro area.

These figures are published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Euro Area Deflation in July 2011: -0.6%, annual inflation down to 2.5% (compared to 1.7% a year ago)

Euro area annual inflation was 2.5% in July 20112, down from 2.7% in June. A year earlier the rate was 1.7%. Monthly inflation was -0.6% in July 2011.

EU annual inflation was 2.9% in July 2011, down from 3.1% in June. A year earlier the rate was 2.1%. Monthly inflation was -0.5% in July 2011.

These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Inflation in the EU Member States

Euro area annual inflation down to 2.7% in May 2011

Euro area annual inflation was 2.7% in May 2011, down from 2.8% in April. A year earlier the rate was 1.7%. Monthly inflation was 0.0% in May 2011.

EU annual inflation was 3.2% in May 2011, down from 3.3% in April. A year earlier the rate was 2.1%. Monthly inflation was 0.1% in May 2011.

These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

UK Inflation 4.4% in February 2011

CPI annual inflation – the Government’s target measure – was 4.4 per cent in February, up from 4.0 per cent in January.

The largest upward pressures to the change in CPI inflation came from:

Eurostat Flash estimate - March 2011: Euro area inflation estimated at 2.6% - confirmation for ECB to increase the rate?

Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.6% in March 2011 according to a flash estimate issued by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It was 2.4% in February.

Computation of flash estimates

Euro area inflation is measured by the Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices (MUICP). To compute the MUICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information relating to the reference month from Member States for which data are available4 as well as early information about energy prices.

February 2011: Euro area annual inflation up to 2.4% - The whole EU stable at 2.8%

Euro area annual inflation was 2.4% in February 2011, up from 2.3% in January. A year earlier the rate was 0.8%. Monthly inflation was 0.4% in February 2011.

EU annual inflation was 2.8% in February 2011, unchanged compared with January. A year earlier the rate was 1.5%. Monthly inflation was 0.4% in February 2011.

These figures come from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Inflation in the EU Member States

ECB’s primary mandate is 2% inflation, then support the general economic policies

Jean-Claude Trichet is bypassing the European Central Bank’s little-known secondary mandate as inflation propels policy makers toward the first interest-rate increase in three years.

While the ECB president signaled on March 3 that he may have no choice other than to tighten monetary policy, the bank’s statutes hand officials leeway to pursue policies supporting economic growth. The Maastricht Treaty says the central bank can keep rates low if policy makers judge that price stability is guaranteed. The ECB itself forecasts inflation will slow below its 2 percent ceiling next year.

“The markets didn’t expect such a shift to the primary mandate so soon,” said Jens Sondergaard, senior European economist at Nomura International Plc in London. “The ECB’s balancing act is especially tricky, with inflation risks crystallizing and the flare-up in the sovereign debt crisis.”

With inflation currently at 2.4 percent, unemployment at 9.9 percent and yields on Irish, Greek and Portuguese bonds close to records, Trichet last week had a choice: Keep his inflation fight limited to rhetoric or declare it was time to raise rates.

Trichet opted to say that the ECB will probably raise its benchmark from 1 percent in April, saying “strong vigilance” is needed. Bundesbank President Axel Weber on March 8 said the move may be the first in a series of increases.

ECB - the hint is there - Trichet Says Rates May Rise Next Month - official statement

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet Thursday signaled that the central bank could raise interest rates next month for the first time since the darkest days of the financial crisis in 2008.

Mr. Trichet warned that risks of inflation in the euro zone "are to the upside" and that "strong vigilance" is required to ensure that the rise in commodity prices recently doesn't translate into a generalized increase in inflation.

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 1.00%, 1.75% and 0.25% respectively.

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