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IMF Global Financial Stability Report - September 2011: Europe bank's exposure to the eurozone debt crisis increased to €300bn

 

Europe bank's exposure to the eurozone debt crisis has increased to €300bn (£263bn).

Cumulative spillovers from high spread euro area sovereigns to the EU banking system - 300 bn euros

The epicenter of sovereign risk has been Greece, which generated the first of four waves of spillover to European banks. The analysis suggests that, first, spillovers on European bank exposures to the Greek sovereign have amounted to almost €60 billion (Figure 1.17). Second, as sovereign risks spread to other governments, the spillovers to banks have mounted. If the sovereign stresses in Ireland and Portugal are included, the total spillover rises to €80 billion. Third, the governments in Belgium, Italy, and Spain have also come under market pressure; incorporating credit risks from these sovereigns into the analysis further raises the total estimated spillover, to about €200 billion. Fourth, bank asset prices in the high-spread euro area have fallen in concert with sovereign stresses, leading to a rise in the credit risk of interbank exposures; including those exposures increases the total estimated spillover to €300 billion overall. Although these numbers are based on market assessments of credit risk, which may reflect a degree of overshooting, the underlying problems that they highlight are real.

IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011: Weak and Bumpy Global Recovery Ahead


  • Global growth forecast to moderate to 4 percent in 2011 and 2012

  • Advanced economies facing anemic growth of only 1.6 percent in 2011

  • Multiple shocks combined with insufficient rebalancing stalling recovery

The global economic recovery is slowing, with world growth projected at 4 percent in both 2011 and 2012, down from over 5 percent in 2010, the IMF said in its latest forecast.

And even this lowered projection counts on a lot going well.

The IMF foresaw a slowdown this year after strong growth in 2010 as fiscal stimulus packages in response to the crisis wound down. But a barrage of economic shocks in 2011 combined with other factors for a worse than anticipated outcome.

“The global economy is in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing,” the IMF said in its September 2011 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

Bob M. Traa the IMF man in Greece

Mr. Traa is a national of the Netherlands and has been with the IMF for 25 years. He holds a PhD in economics.

Transcript of a Conference Call on the Conclusion of the Sixth Review under the IMF-supported program with Iceland

Julie Kozack, IMF mission chief to Iceland,
Simonetta Nardin, External Relations Department
Wednesday, August 31, 2011


MS. NARDIN: Welcome to the conference call on the sixth and last review of the IMF-supported program with Iceland. With me is the IMF Mission Chief to Iceland, Julie Kozack. She will now say a few words of introduction and we will then open it up to your questions.

A EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND MORPHED OUT OF THE EFSF

A set of references to the nascent European Monetary Fund are below

(but we @ asymptotix think that we thought of it 1st) - see the link to the ESB proposal below

UL icons asymptotix 2

 

FT LEXICON

"European Monetary Fund"

$229 Billion in New Greek Aid

EU leaders look to expanded bailout fund to stave off crisis

European debt crisis: As it happened

Sarkozy's take on debt crisis

That eurozone summit draft - annotated

Eurozone debt crisis summit: as it happened

 

A EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND [EMF] = the ESB (EUROPEAN STABILISATION BANK) CONCEPT

 

Let me summarise what is going on here on this page, above is the Euro Summit of summer 2011; Merkozy-sphere; Van Rompuy & Barosso are the puppets; here is how the process works; Lunatix2 ; the EMF or ESB idea is progressing through the DYSFUNCTIONAL GROUNDHOG SUMMITRY of the 2010 - 2012 period, announcements at 5am - thing! The initial partial proposal of summer 2010 is below with an explanation [allegedly] of why that proposal was so over complex and half baked & some links to further contempraneous analysis. The summits of 2012 are opaque to say the least; we still have van Rompuy the Harlequin announcing 'peace with honour' but we don not have a solution which remains credible and stable in terms of the markets for longer that 48 hours; see Lunatix3 . We are watching a Darwinian inevitability proceed at the pace of a car crash; guided by Lunatix, with Hidden Agendas; in the end the solution is inevitable, an EMF or ESB in all but name & with a banking license. It looks as complex as a modern ballet, that is the way they like it in Brussels; the process has become publicly narcissistic; it has gone too far, the politicians (elected & unelected) are loosing their audience. Now it looks as though in the end the Germans will have to pay;-

ECB - Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Private sector involvement: From (good) theory to (bad) practice

Speech by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,
at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
Berlin, 6 June 2011

The title of this first session of the conference is: “Policy responses within countries and inside the eurozone since 2010: an appraisal”. The topic is very broad and I cannot cover it in such a short time span unless I am selective and focus on some specific issues.

Global liquidity: a view from Basel

Jaime Caruana

General Manager, Bank for International Settlements

International Capital Markets Association Annual General Meeting and Annual Conference

Paris, 26 May 2011

Statement by the European Commission, ECB and IMF on the first quarterly review mission to Ireland

Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Dublin from 5 to 15 April for the first quarterly review of the Irish Government’s economic programme. The objectives of the programme are to address financial sector weaknesses and to put Ireland’s economy on a path of sustainable growth, sound public finances and job creation. Maintaining social fairness in shouldering the burden of adjustment is one of the programme’s priorities.

The teams’ assessment is that the programme is on track, but challenges remain and steadfast policy implementation will be key.

Ireland is making good progress in overcoming the worst economic crisis in its recent history. The implementation of the programme has been determined, despite the period of political change and an uncertain external environment. The new government, through its Programme for Government and its decisive approach to banking sector reforms, has taken full ownership of the goals and key elements of the programme supported by EU and IMF.

IMF Statement on Ireland

(9 February 2011) The Government has met initial targets set out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the conditions of the bailout plan agreed last year. In an  interim review of the progress of the implementation of the programme, the IMF said targets had been met despite continuing pressure on the financial system and political uncertainty. The interim review was carried out when the IMF mission visited Dublin during between January 12th and 21st. The review is part of the conditions of the bailout the Government sought from the IMF and EU.

IMF World Economic Outlook Update January 2011 Global Recovery Advances but Remains Uneven

The two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows. Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly.

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