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IMF Global Financial Stability Report - September 2011: Europe bank's exposure to the eurozone debt crisis increased to €300bn

Europe bank's exposure to the eurozone debt crisis has increased to €300bn (£263bn).

Cumulative spillovers from high spread euro area sovereigns to the EU banking system - 300 bn euros

The epicenter of sovereign risk has been Greece, which generated the first of four waves of spillover to European banks. The analysis suggests that, first, spillovers on European bank exposures to the Greek sovereign have amounted to almost €60 billion (Figure 1.17). Second, as sovereign risks spread to other governments, the spillovers to banks have mounted. If the sovereign stresses in Ireland and Portugal are included, the total spillover rises to €80 billion. Third, the governments in Belgium, Italy, and Spain have also come under market pressure; incorporating credit risks from these sovereigns into the analysis further raises the total estimated spillover, to about €200 billion. Fourth, bank asset prices in the high-spread euro area have fallen in concert with sovereign stresses, leading to a rise in the credit risk of interbank exposures; including those exposures increases the total estimated spillover to €300 billion overall. Although these numbers are based on market assessments of credit risk, which may reflect a degree of overshooting, the underlying problems that they highlight are real.

IMF World Economic Outlook September 2011: Weak and Bumpy Global Recovery Ahead



  • Global growth forecast to moderate to 4 percent in 2011 and 2012

  • Advanced economies facing anemic growth of only 1.6 percent in 2011

  • Multiple shocks combined with insufficient rebalancing stalling recovery

The global economic recovery is slowing, with world growth projected at 4 percent in both 2011 and 2012, down from over 5 percent in 2010, the IMF said in its latest forecast.


And even this lowered projection counts on a lot going well.

Bob M. Traa the IMF man in Greece

Mr. Traa is a national of the Netherlands and has been with the IMF for 25 years. He holds a PhD in economics.

Transcript of a Conference Call on the Conclusion of the Sixth Review under the IMF-supported program with Iceland

Julie Kozack, IMF mission chief to Iceland,
Simonetta Nardin, External Relations Department
Wednesday, August 31, 2011


MS. NARDIN: Welcome to the conference call on the sixth and last review of the IMF-supported program with Iceland. With me is the IMF Mission Chief to Iceland, Julie Kozack. She will now say a few words of introduction and we will then open it up to your questions.

ECB - Lorenzo Bini Smaghi: Private sector involvement: From (good) theory to (bad) practice

Speech by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB,
at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
Berlin, 6 June 2011

The title of this first session of the conference is: “Policy responses within countries and inside the eurozone since 2010: an appraisal”. The topic is very broad and I cannot cover it in such a short time span unless I am selective and focus on some specific issues.

Statement by the European Commission, ECB and IMF on the first quarterly review mission to Ireland

Staff teams from the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Dublin from 5 to 15 April for the first quarterly review of the Irish Government’s economic programme. The objectives of the programme are to address financial sector weaknesses and to put Ireland’s economy on a path of sustainable growth, sound public finances and job creation. Maintaining social fairness in shouldering the burden of adjustment is one of the programme’s priorities.

The teams’ assessment is that the programme is on track, but challenges remain and steadfast policy implementation will be key.

Ireland is making good progress in overcoming the worst economic crisis in its recent history. The implementation of the programme has been determined, despite the period of political change and an uncertain external environment. The new government, through its Programme for Government and its decisive approach to banking sector reforms, has taken full ownership of the goals and key elements of the programme supported by EU and IMF.

IMF Statement on Ireland

(9 February 2011) The Government has met initial targets set out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the conditions of the bailout plan agreed last year. In an  interim review of the progress of the implementation of the programme, the IMF said targets had been met despite continuing pressure on the financial system and political uncertainty. The interim review was carried out when the IMF mission visited Dublin during between January 12th and 21st. The review is part of the conditions of the bailout the Government sought from the IMF and EU.

IMF World Economic Outlook Update January 2011 Global Recovery Advances but Remains Uneven

The two-speed recovery continues. In advanced economies, activity has moderated less than expected, but growth remains subdued, unemployment is still high, and renewed stresses in the euro area periphery are contributing to downside risks. In many emerging economies, activity remains buoyant, inflation pressures are emerging, and there are now some signs of overheating, driven in part by strong capital inflows. Most developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, are also growing strongly.

The theory of how the financial system created AAA-rated assets out of subprime mortgages

This diagram is from a 2008 IMF report and was included at the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission website.

The diagram shows how mortgages were combined into pools and rights to the cash flow from these mortgages sold to investors via residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). High-risk RMBS securities were purchased by legal entities called collateralized debt obligations (CDO) which issued another layer of securities to investors.

Click on the diagram for a larger version in a new window.

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