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The Political Economy of LTRO

INTRODUCTION

It's LTRO[1] that I’m talking about this time! LTRO the latest version of “economic life support those” crackpot surgeons in the Central Banks and Treasuries of Europe have come up with. What is the issue with it? As LTRO2 approaches, to on the leap day (29/2/2012) I present a number of theses about LTRO;

1.      LTRO is a workaround for Crowding Out

2.      LTRO is executed via a process called 'Round Tripping' or known as a ‘Carry Trade’

3.      Hedge Funds are intrinsic to the success of LTRO

4.      This makes governments dependent upon Hedge Funds (& not just the banks)

5.      LTRO creates a cash balloon which props up the equity market

6.      LTRO is a high-risk central bank strategy which could deflate at a stroke

7.      Ironically the very Hedge Funds and Asset Managers who are intrinsic to the success of LTRO are already freaked out by the high risk nature of the policy,

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Indeed, European Economic and Monetary Affairs Commission Olli Rehn was in Berlin on Tuesday to tout Brussels' three-option studyon how bonds issued jointly by the 17 euro-zone member states could help stem the debt crisis.

Willem Buiter Citigroup: Europe Must Act Now to Avoid a Default

ECB Overnight Deposits 2011 (statistics)

Lenders increased overnight deposits at the European Central Bank to the highest level in more than 16 months.

Banks parked 299 billion euros ($412 billion) with the Frankfurt-based ECB yesterday, up from 288 billion euros on Nov. 4. That’s the most since June 30, 2010, and compares with a year-to-date average of 71 billion euros.

 

 

ECB Overnight Deposits 2011

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Euro zone banks overnight deposits with the European Central Bank

Update 25 October 2011: The European Central Bank said banks in the euro area accessed less emergency overnight funding and deposits also fell.


Financial institutions borrowed 4 billion euros ($5.6 billion) at the rate of 2.25 percent, the ECB said, down from 4.6 billion the previous day. Banks also parked 198 billion euros with the Frankfurt-based central bank, down from 202 billion euros the day before.

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In total, Siemens has parked between €4bn ($5.4bn) and €6bn at the ECB’s facilities, mostly through one-week deposits, this person said. Only a handful of large companies have the banking licences that allow them to deposit cash directly with the ECB.

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The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided, in coordination with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank, to conduct three US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately three months covering the end of the year. These operations will be conducted in addition to the ongoing weekly seven-day operations announced on 10 May 2010. The schedule for these additional operations is as follows:







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A sequence model of German / ECB relations 2010 thru 2011 from the WSJ

 

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