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Bayesian Methods in Portfolio Credit Risk Management

Bayesian Methods in
Portfolio Credit Risk Management
A dissertation submitted to the
SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
ZURICH
for the degree of
Doctor of Sciences
presented by
JONATHAN ERIK PURVIS WENDIN
MSc. Engineering Physics KTH
born 17 April 1978
citizen of Sweden
accepted on the recommendation of
Prof. Dr. Alexander J. McNeil, examiner
Prof. Dr. Peter L. Bühlmann, co-examiner
Prof. Dr. Philipp J. Schönbucher, co-examiner

Cutting Eurostat to Pieces

The present writer took up his Eurostat post in March 1991, right after Desert Shield. He was told then that Eurostat "had no right" to publish economic analyses and those instructions were repeated from time to time ever since. No Eurostat publication that he has seen contained any fruits of the officially forbidden research.

US Bank exposure to PIIGS

Five US banks have released some data (SEC filings) of their exposure to PIIGS.

Source WSJ

Economist: Europe's deepening crisis

Visualising 'Crowding Out' The MICRO (or Market) Perspective

charts from the ECB SDW

PUBLIC QUANTITATIVE ANALYTICS: ASYMPTOTIC ORGANISATIONAL LAYOUTS

LIVSM.jpg

 

a discussion of european issues of data quality & reliability

& a sketch of a roadmap to address such

ECB to reveal if increased commodity prices or wages dictate rate increase policy

On Thursday this week ECB is expected to be the first of the three leading central banks to raise interest rates by 25 basis-points in its main rate to 1.25 per cent.

The ECB announced at last month’s policy meeting its “strongly vigilant” stance against inflation. Eurostat published its flash estimates where Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.6% in March 2011. This is well over the 2% target.

Oil prices start to chip at global growth forecasts

The steep rise in oil prices as unrest shook several countries in the Middle East and North Africa has rekindled fears of a global growth slowdown, and economists are starting to mull downward revisions to their expectations.

Oil markets have taken a breather in recent days, but so far this year oil has risen nearly 11% as geopolitical concerns centering in the Middle East and North Africa have powered oil’s rally.

High prices mean higher gasoline prices, which in turn have stoked concerns of rising inflation just as the global economy appeared on the mend after the 2008 financial crisis.

At least one big bank has lowered its expectations for global growth partly based on the rallying oil prices. Other private-sector economists say they’re holding off — unless oil prices spike again.

Are the key legislative pillars such as Basel II & III, UCITS IV and Solvency II forcing you to re-examine how you identify, measure and manage risk and capital?

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