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ECB Statement 2 September 2010 - interest rate unchanged - refinancing operations with settlement 17 October 2010 3 month

Based on its regular economic and monetary analyses, the Governing Council continues to view the current key ECB interest rates as appropriate. It therefore decided to leave them unchanged. Considering all the new information and analyses which have become available since our meeting on 5 August 2010, we continue to expect price developments to remain moderate over the policy-relevant medium-term horizon, benefiting from low domestic price pressures. Recent economic data for the euro area have been stronger than expected, partly owing to temporary factors.

How Deutsche Bank survived the crisis

JOSEF ACKERMANN, the head of Deutsche Bank, combines a silky manner with blunt words. When the German government set up a bail-out fund to stabilise the country’s banking system, he said he would be “ashamed” to use it. When Europe and the IMF bailed out Greece, Mr Ackermann said he doubted it would pay back the loans. And when regulators and economists say that big banks should be broken up, with “casino” investment banks split off from “utility” retail banks, Mr Ackermann retorts that “smaller banks will not make us safer.”

Irish Worries For The Global Economy

Is the global economic recovery still on track? The mainstream view is: yes, without a doubt. But increasingly, there are increasingly reasons to fear another financial disruption – particularly given the latest developments in Ireland.

Moody’s bugs cleared on a technicality

Moody’s has avoided prosecution by SEC and others on a technicality, announced some three years after the SEC investigation began!

CEO Letter to my Rain-makers

Dear Rain-makers, friends & colleagues, You have been asking how exactly our 2009 bonuses will be structured and paid? As some of you will know 2008 bonuses were the same as in 2004, and all paid in cash! 2004 (28 April) was also when the USA's SEC relaxed leverage ratios on investment banks; following which we all in the UK followed suit, mainly by upping our % bonus pool to profit ratio by a fifth.

Second Leg of Crisis Beginning?

September and October hold bad news for stock markets and banks remain overleveraged as we head into the second leg of the financial crisis according to Pedro De Noronha, the managing partner at Noster Capital in London. "We are seeing one of the most challenging years for investors ever," De Noronha told CNBC Tuesday. "Major investors are simply leaving the market. When it looks like markets are about to fall off the cliff they rally and vice versa. "There are problems coming from the resetting of US mortgages and (the) euro area remains a big worry," he said.

Quantitative Libraries for Financial Predictive Analytics

Asymptotix' support for the language R (and S+ where I started and seems cool to mention alongside R these days, mystifyingly but probably the subject of another blog) is prima facie, just read our website. We have a particular pleasure in a good relationship with REvolution Analytics, with whom we have been beside since the start and who have driven the R standard with great success over the last couple of years. We have a strong partnership with TIBCO Spotfire and we understand S+.

Sweden: Process of involuntary liquidation of HQ Bank initiated

As a consequence of the decision by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) to revoke all HQ Bank's licences, the board of HQ Bank has during the weekend actively sought a private solution with a party holding an existing banking licence that would allow the operations to continue to be conducted.

ECB: The annual rate of change of M3 stood at 0.2% in July 2010

The annual rate of change of M3 stood at 0.2% in July 2010, unchanged from the previous month. The three-month average of the annual rates of change of M3 over the period May 2010 - July 2010 stood at 0.1%, compared with 0.0% in the period April 2010 - June 2010.

Riksbank - Central Bank of Sweden, Stefan Ingves: Swedish Economy in Good Shape

Sweden’s top central banker Saturday said the country’s economy looked in good shape despite the slowdown in the global recovery, indicating Swedish interest rates will continue to increase. Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves said in an interview on the sidelines of a meeting of central bankers here that the recovery in global trade would allow the Swedish economy to continue growing. “Growth will be good in the Swedish economy in the coming years,” Ingves said.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: US Recovery Softer, Fed Ready With Stimulus

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Friday the recovery has softened more than expected and the Fed is ready to take further steps if needed to spur the stumbling economy. "The committee is prepared to provide additional monetary accommodation through unconventional measures if it proves necessary, especially if the outlook were to deteriorate significantly," he said in remarks prepared for delivery at a Fed conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

30-Year Government Bond Yield Near Record Low Before Central Bankers Talk

German 30-year government bond yields were near a record low on speculation Federal Reserve Governor Ben S. Bernanke will signal today his willingness to increase purchases of Treasuries. Ten-year yields were within six basis points of the lowest on record before a report forecast to show German consumer price growth stalled in August. The U.S. economy grew more slowly than initially estimated, a report from the Commerce Department will show, according to the median estimate of 81 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Bernanke is scheduled to speak at 3 p.m.

The Quants Control The Markets and May Cause Another Crash in Stock Prices

From the Forbes: “WATCH OUT FOR THE QUANTS,” a column I wrote in February, 2008, warned that computer driven buy and sell orders were dangerously fragmenting the marketplace for stocks. Dan Mathisson, Credit Suisse head of advanced execution services, told me then; “More and more of the world’s trading is done by spraying dark orders across multiple destinations by using deliberately complicated patterns and algorithmic models that can’t be discovered or duplicated. No one knows who’s doing what to whom anymore.”

Standard & Poor’s defends Ireland downgrade

Standard & Poor's defended on Wednesday its downgrade of Ireland's long-term credit rating and said its estimate of a 35 billion euros bill for bailing out nationalised lender Anglo Irish was conservative. "Our previous estimate had been overshot by a wide margin, we are hoping that this, which is still a relatively conservative estimate with regard to Anglo will not be overshot again," analyst Trevor Cullinan told state broadcaster RTE.

Comparing the current economic climate with the Great Depression

Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is on the tapes saying that with all deference to the blowout Q2 German GDP data, the continent is facing growing recession risks amid the radical cutbacks in government spending. Bank of England official Martin Weale pretty well told the London-based Times the same thing about the U.K. economic outlook.

Disappointing US Economic Data - Existing Home Sales Hit 15-Year Low; Housing Market Weakens

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes dropped more steeply than expected in July to their lowest pace in 15 years, an industry group said Tuesday, implying further loss of momentum in the economic recovery. The National Association of Realtors said sales dropped a record 27.2 percent from June to an annual rate of 3.83 million units, the lowest level since May 1995. June's sales pace was revised down to a 5.26 million-unit pace. Analysts polled by Reuters expected existing home sales to tumble 12 percent to a 4.70 million-unit pace from the previously reported 5.37 million units in June.

Interest rates 'may hit 8pc' in two years

Andrew Lilico, chief economist at the influential Policy Exchange think tank, has warned of an interest rate environment not seen since the 1990s. He said the rise could happen as the recovery beds in and Government measures to stave off a recession lead to an explosion in the money supply. Mr Lilico also warned of a return to "boom and bust", as ballooning inflation threatens to tip the economy back in to recession in 2013 or 2014.

Axel Weber, the Bundesbank president, and the European Central Bank

Axel Weber, the Bundesbank president, has put himself on a collision course with European Central Bank policymakers by arguing publicly in favour of extending emergency help for eurozone banks until at least next year.

The comments by Germany’s central bank head were unusually forthright and suggested he wanted to assert his authority ahead of a decision next year on a successor to Jean-Claude Trichet as ECB president.

BarCap on Basel III and “tier one” equity capital

Big US banks should be able to meet tighter global capital requirements without having to raise substantial amounts of new equity, according to calculations by Barclays Capital.

The analysis by BarCap’s debt capital markets group estimates that the 35 largest US banks will have to come up with half as much new capital as had been expected following last month’s rewrite of proposed requirements by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision

Assessment of the macroeconomic impact of stronger capital and liquidity requirements

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) and Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) today published reports prepared as inputs to the calibration of the new bank capital and liquidity standards and to inform the transition arrangements for implementation of the new standards. 

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